Based on preliminary data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance as of 31 October 2015 is expected to result in a surplus of BGN 57 million (0.1% of the projected GDP). For comparison, a CFP deficit of BGN 1,760.1 million (2.1% of GDP) was reported in the same period of the previous year, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 2.2 percentage points. Just for October, the deficit on a monthly basis is expected to be around BGN 564 million mainly due to the higher expenditures under EU fund accounts where, unlike the previous months, a deficit is expected.

Key CFP parameters based on preliminary data and estimates:

As of 31 October 2015, CFP revenues and grants are expected to be BGN 26,566.5 million (87.5% of the annual plans), registering a growth by 10.6% (BGN 2,545.8 million) as compared to the same period of 2014. The growth compared to the previous year is mainly due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues and grant proceeds (funds reimbursed by the European Commission) which rise by BGN 1,614.9 million and BGN 930.9 million, respectively.

Based on operational data and estimates, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures (including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget) as of October 2015 amount to BGN 26,509.5 million, which is 80.7% of the annual plans. The expenditures for the same period of last year amount to BGN 25,780.8 million. Traditionally, the expenditures incurred in the last quarter of the year are higher than those reported in the other quarters of the year due to some seasonal factors and a concentration of the majority of capital expenditures in this quarter. The deadlines for implementation of infrastructure projects that are mostly related to absorption of EU funds comply with the calendar construction season, and their closure and commissioning shifts the final payments to contractors to the final months of the year.

The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, paid as of end-October 2015 from the central budget, amounts to BGN 684.7 million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC.

The statistical data and the Information Bulletin on the Execution of the State Budget and the key Consolidated Fiscal Programme indicators based on the monthly data on cash execution of first-level spending units will be published on the website of the Ministry of Finance at the end of November 2015.